Poverty Measurement Methodology Study — Sudan Statistical Capacity Building Project

Term of Reference

Individual Consultant to Prepare Poverty Measurement Methodology Note

Sudan Statistical Capacity Building Project (P167988): Improving Household Surveys and Administrative Data in Sudan

I. Background

The Republic of the Sudan has received financial support from the World Bank to the implementation of a Statistical Capacity Building Project in Sudan. The objective of the project is to strengthen the capacity of the Central Bureau of Statistics to improve the quality of household poverty survey data, and to improve the availability and quality of existing administrative data in the education and health sectors. The main expected outcome of this project is to build the capacity of the CBS to design and implement household surveys that are consistent with international best practices, as well as to be able to analyze the data and disseminate them in line with open data policies. The project is also expected to help improve availability of administrative data in education and health sectors in Sudan.

II. Context and Rationale

The Household Budget Survey is the official source of poverty and other social indicators in Sudan. The CBS conducted the National Baseline Household Survey in 2009 and the National Household Budget and Poverty Survey (NHBPS) in 2014/15. The results of the 2009 survey led to the first ever reliable poverty estimates in Sudan in 2010/11. The World Bank Poverty Profiles produced from the survey formed an integral part of Sudan’s work on an Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy, formally launched on November 22, 2012. Before these, there was a Household Budget Survey (HBS) carried out in 1978.

However, significant shortcomings have been identified in the 2014/15 survey that make it non-comparable with the 2009 survey. These include the following:

(a) Seasonality. The 2009 survey was conducted in a different month than all the rounds of the new survey. This can introduce a seasonal bias when comparing the 2009 estimates with new estimates.

(b) Food recall. the 2014/15 survey has a food recall period of 10 days instead of 7 days. This implies that different weekdays are covered by the recall depending on the weekday of the interview. In Sudan, as with other typical Muslim countries, consumption is usually higher on Fridays. Thus, households interviewed between Wednesday and Friday are likely to have higher consumption than other households.

(c) Consumption aggregate. The 2014/15 survey includes 49 additional food items and 71 additional non-food items compared to the 2009 survey. Even though the previous survey included ‘other’ items to capture consumption of any items not included, it can be assumed that those additional items were underreported.

The CBS, through the Statistical Capacity Building Project, is looking to hire a consultant to prepare a Poverty Measurement Methodology Note. This will include the methodology for collecting poverty (consumption) data and measuring poverty in Sudan. The methodology will be discussed and agreed with relevant stakeholders (government, development partners, researchers) and documented and will be used for the next household survey, serving as a benchmark going forward, following recommended international best practices. The Consultant will work very closely with the World Bank on this assignment.

III. Scope of Work:

The consultant is expected to conduct the following tasks:

a. Carry out extensive desk review of status of poverty statistics in Sudan, with a focus on methodologies and standards being used. This includes all aspects related to poverty measurement: food basket, adjusting for spatial and price variation, poverty lines (food poverty, extreme poverty, absolute/global poverty), capturing potential seasonality effect, and so on.

b. Review and follow international best standards and practices recommended by the World Bank for compilation, analysis and dissemination of poverty statistics.

c. Based on (a) and (b), prepare a Poverty Measurement Methodology Note, outlining the method for collecting poverty (consumption) data and measuring poverty in Sudan. As much as feasible, the document should use empirical evidence to explain the pros and cons of various options, justifying why a specific method is preferred.

d. Develop a roadmap to enable comparable poverty measurement, for the next household survey, and going forward.

e. Assess the previous survey questionnaires and propose what modules should be included in the questionnaire to collect complete information for the proposed poverty methodology. Special focus should be given to the consumption expenditure module (both food and non-food consumption expenditure).

f. While the next survey will be based on the proposed methodology, it would important to find a way to track changes in poverty between the previous survey (either 2014/15 or 2009, whichever makes more sense) and the next survey. After already proposing the new poverty measurement methodology, the consultant will also propose technically sound options that would allow to achieve this comparison.

g. Present drafts of the Poverty Measurement Methodology Note to CBS and the World Bank, and the final draft to all relevant stakeholders (government, development partners, researchers) for validation.

h. After validation, conduct a workshop to present the final Poverty Measurement Methodology Note.

IV. Deliverables:

The list below is the expected outcome to be delivered during undertaking the assignment:

a. Develop and submit to CBS a Poverty Measurement Methodology Note, as detailed in the scope of work.

b. Convene a workshop to present the validated Poverty Measurement Methodology Note to relevant stakeholders.

c. Submit a written proposal for comparing poverty between 2014/15 or 2009 and the next survey that will be based on the newly validated poverty measurement methodology.

V. Duration and reporting requirements:

This consultancy is expected to cover the period from April 16, 2019 to June 30, 2019, requiring up to 45 days to complete the assignment. The consultant will be based in Khartoum, Sudan during the period of assignment, especially to facilitate engagement with CBS and the World Bank teams. However, subject to agreement with CBS, s/he may fulfil part of the assignment at their base location. While the consultant will report to CBS, s/he is required to work very closely with the World Bank project team.

VI. Input provided by CBS

Apart from providing office space, CBS will provide the Consultant with administrative support including communication facilities, and assistance in making appointments arrangements, organising meetings, avail documents, and other provisions necessary to facilitate her/his work.

VII. Required Qualifications:

The consultant should meet the following criteria:

• Hold at least an advanced degree (PhD preferred) in the field of Economics, Statistics or related field;

• Have at least 10 years’ experience of experience in poverty analytical work, particularly in Africa. This includes household survey design and poverty measurement in accordance with international best practices;

• Demonstrated extensive experience in poverty analysis using micro datasets, constructing consumption aggregate, preparing poverty profiles, etc.;

• Relevant experience in drafting technical documents and strong analytical skills;

• Familiarity with poverty measurement context of Sudan would be advantageous;

• A track record of relevant publications is essential;

• Prior experience working with a national statistical office is advantageous;

• Fluency in spoken and written English is a must. Proficiency in Arabic is a plus;

• Ability and willingness to travel to Sudan for this assignment.